Australian Dollar Battle Lines Drawn

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In this collection we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical image to achieve a bit extra perspective on the place we’re in development. The Aussie restoration failed at main resistance in opposition to the US Dollar final week with our give attention to the near-term pullback in value. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and extra.

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AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Weekly - Aussie Outlook

Notes: In my newest Aussie Price Outlook we famous that, “a breach / shut above 6972 is required to gas the subsequent leg increased focusing on the yearly low-day shut at 7005– search for an even bigger response there IF reached” A quick stint into the 50% retracement of the yearly vary failed post-NFPs on Friday with value closing the week under the determine.

Key weekly resistance stays at 7020/42 with a breach above the June 2018 resistance slope (presently ~7080s) wanted to validate a bigger flip in value. Support rests on the 61.8% retracement of the May advance (additionally the May 20th reversal-week shut) at 6925. A draw back break of this formation (presently round ~6900) would as soon as once more hold the 2016 low / low-week shut into focus at 6827/55– search for a extra important response there IF reached.

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Bottom line: Aussie turned from a serious resistance confluence final week and IF costs are certainly heading increased, losses needs to be restricted to the decrease parallel. From a buying and selling standpoint, search for a help on a transfer decrease to supply extra favorable entries with a topside breach above channel resistance wanted to shift the broader focus increased. Review my newest AUD/USD Price Outlook for a better take a look at the near-term Aussie buying and selling ranges.

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AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Positioning - Aussie Price Chart

  • A abstract of IG Client Sentiment reveals merchants are net-long AUD/USD – the ratio stands at +1.84 (64.8% of merchants are lengthy) – bearish studying
  • Traders have remained net-long since April 18th; value has moved 2.9% decrease since then
  • Long positions are 3.9% increased than yesterday and eight.0% increased from final week
  • Short positions are 1.7% increased than yesterday and 14.7% decrease from final week
  • We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests Aussie could proceed to fall. Traders are additional net-long than yesterday & final week, and the mixture of present positioning and up to date adjustments provides us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn extra about sentiment!

Key Australia / US Data Releases

Australia / US Data Releases - Economic Calendar

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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