US Dollar Price Outlook in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD

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US Dollar Price Outlook Talking Points:

  • The US Dollar is holding at an space of key assist after final week’s aggressive sell-off.
  • With USD value motion holding at an enormous assist stage, the door might open for reversal setups in a few markets of curiosity. If, then again, the bearish theme in USD continues, pairs like EURUSD or, maybe even GBPUSD might be of curiosity.
  • DailyFX Forecasts are printed on quite a lot of currencies similar to Gold, the US Dollar or the Euro and can be found from the DailyFX Trading Guides web page. If you’re seeking to enhance your buying and selling strategy, take a look at Traits of Successful Traders. And in the event you’re in search of an introductory primer to the Forex market, take a look at our New to FX Guide.

US Dollar Holds Key Confluent Support

It’s been a wild begin to June throughout international markets, and with US equities making a robust topside push again in direction of the highs, the US Dollar is greedy at assist on a key space of the chart. We appeared into this space yesterday because the USD had intersected with the 200 Day Moving Average at a key Fibonacci stage on Friday of final week. Thus far, that space round 96.50 has helped to carry the lows within the Greenback after an aggressive push from bears final week. The huge query is whether or not this assist can maintain – and for FX merchants there are a selection of setups of curiosity for both situation.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart: June Sell-Off Meets Key Confluent Support

us dollar usd price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

EURUSD Presses Towards Two-Month-Highs

While the Euro isn’t doubtless a foreign money that many merchants harbor long-term bullish biases round, on a near-term foundation, issues could also be a bit totally different. To ensure, there are a plethora of potential dangers across the Euro-Zone, each political and financial in nature. But, these dangers have been identified for fairly a while and for a lot of the final 12 months, sellers have been in-control of value motion within the single foreign money.

But what occurs in a market when anybody who’s keen to be and needs to be brief already is? If there’s nobody left to promote and solely these holding brief positions, in some unspecified time in the future a few of these shorts are going to need to shut, which requires hitting the bid. And the easy act of costs transferring larger might then encourage others to hit the bid, both to shut current shorts or to set off recent longs in a reversal technique. This is the place brief squeezes come from, and this can be the situation across the Euro for the time being.

In EURUSD, the down-trend was pretty clear by a lot of May. Prices appeared very reticent to check by the 1.1100 deal with, nonetheless, and that bearish trepidation has given technique to bullish short-term themes. As checked out on this week’s FX Setups, continued pullback within the US Dollar can enable for a bigger retracement in EURUSD, maybe to the prior zone of vary resistance that runs from 1.1448-1.1500.

EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

GBPUSD Tests Key Resistance, Prior Support

The same albeit much less pronounced theme has proven in GBPUSD, the place sellers actually made their mark final month. The pair was oversold for a big a part of the interval and just like EURUSD, didn’t start to bounce till the June open appeared.

In a distinction to the EURUSD setup above, the bounce to date in GBPUSD has been milder. Prices stay round a key space on the chart that had beforehand functioned as assist, taken from a batch of Fibonacci ranges that runs from 1.2671-1.2721. If patrons are in a position to seize management over the subsequent couple of days, which may very well be indicated by one other short-term higher-high above the Friday swing at 1.2763, the door might quickly open for topside methods, in search of an eventual push in direction of the confluent zone across the 1.2900 deal with.

GBPUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

AUDUSD Holds Key Resistance

On the long-side of the US Dollar, AUDUSD might retain some curiosity. I had appeared on the pair on this week’s FX Setups as one of many extra engaging backdrops for a return of USD energy, and the resistance zone investigated has to date held the highs pretty effectively.

Current assist is exhibiting round a swing assist space from final week within the .6950-.6960 space, however after a day of checks, assist seems to be slipping. A push under opens the door for a re-test of the .6900 space after which a re-test of the five-month-low round .6860 turns into engaging.

AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

audusd price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

USDCAD Grasps for Support at Two-Month-Lows

Echoing that theme of USD-weakness final week was USDCAD, which put in a really pronounced draw back transfer after having set a recent excessive within the week prior. It was a stark change-of-pace for USDCAD value motion, and this theme noticed costs shed greater than 300 pips as bears posed a direct-push right down to a key assist stage, taking out a key trend-line within the course of.

USDCAD Weekly Price Chart

usdcad usd cad price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

That assist has since held after being examined all through yesterday and once more this morning. But patrons, at this level, have proven little means to deliver a topside push, as sellers got here proper again in after a 30-pip bounce yesterday. A break-below this key assist stage might open the door for a run right down to the March lows, taken from across the Fibonacci stage at 1.3132.

USDCAD Eight-Hour Price Chart

usdcad usd cad price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

To learn extra:

Are you in search of longer-term evaluation on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a bit for every main foreign money, and we additionally supply a plethora of sources on Gold or USD-pairs similar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can even keep up with near-term positioning through our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX provides an abundance of instruments, indicators and sources to assist merchants. For these in search of buying and selling concepts, our IG Client Sentiment reveals the positioning of retail merchants with precise reside trades and positions. Our buying and selling guides deliver our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time information feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX group. And in the event you’re in search of real-time evaluation, our DailyFX Webinars supply quite a few classes every week in which you’ll see how and why we’re taking a look at what we’re taking a look at.

If you’re in search of instructional info, our New to FX information is there to assist new(er) merchants whereas our Traits of Successful Traders analysis is constructed to assist sharpen the ability set by specializing in danger and commerce administration.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and observe James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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