Mexico: with amigos like these

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In September, Mexico’s president Enrique Peña Nieto held talks with Donald Trump. His try at ingratiation has not thus far shielded Mexico’s foreign money or inventory market from the impression of Mr Trump’s victory.

Mexican markets are comparatively giant and liquid, in order that they have been all the time more likely to endure on “danger off” days. That quick part will move. The weaker foreign money, down by a tenth on Wednesday, could have a extra lasting impression. It’s more likely to result in greater inflation as imports turn out to be costlier. The central financial institution might mitigate that by elevating charges, though it selected to not act on Wednesday. Greater charges merely squeeze residents and corporations a special method.

Past that, a lot will relaxation on what number of of Mr Trump’s threats — akin to a 35 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico — turn into formal coverage. The nation’s commerce surplus with its northern neighbour largely cancels out a deficit with the remainder of the world, simply as remittances from Mexicans within the US partly offset an general present account deficit. Future funds could also be value extra in peso phrases, however fewer individuals could possibly be making them.

That each one provides as much as a squeeze on home spending: dangerous information for shopper-dealing with corporations akin to Femsa, Walmex and Televisa, which make up virtually a 3rd of the IPC index. Shares in Walmex, the native subsidiary of the US retail big Walmart, fell four per cent in peso phrases. Miners, with prices in pesos however revenues in dollars, outperformed. Penoles was up thirteen per cent in early commerce. Fresnillo, listed within the UK, additionally rose strongly.

The playbook might resemble the UK’s vote to go away the EU, which additionally featured an instantaneous devaluation plus a variety of unsure future outcomes. The FTSE 250 index of domestically targeted shares fell 14 per cent in sterling phrases after the vote, however now stands greater (in dollars, it’s nonetheless 15 per cent decrease). For now, Mexico’s foreign money is taking the pressure. However robust occasions lie forward for a few of its largest corporations, too.

E mail the Lex workforce at lex@ft.com


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