The autumn within the worth of the pound boosted UK manufacturing exports final month however elevated buying prices for companies, in line with the newest survey of the sector.
The Markit/CIPS survey of buying managers within the manufacturing business fell from a 27-month excessive of fifty five.5 in September to fifty four.three in October. This rating was consistent with market expectations and above the essential 50 mark that separates enlargement from contraction. Manufacturing makes up a few tenth of the UK financial system.
Buying managers reported that the quantity of latest orders elevated for the third consecutive month, reflecting larger demand from home and abroad consumers. Employment additionally rose for the third month in a row.
However “the primary matter of the newest PMI survey was … the influence of the sterling depreciation on producers”, stated Rob Dobson, senior economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the index. The pound fell by simply over 6 per cent towards the greenback in October, its worst month since June.
Depreciation has elevated export orders — UK items have develop into cheaper for overseas consumers — and the survey highlighted a specific rise in orders from the US, EU and China.
Nevertheless, it has additionally pushed up the worth of inputs to the manufacturing course of, lots of that are imported. This has led to “one of many steepest rises in buying prices within the close to 25-yr survey historical past”, stated Mr Dobson.
Producers look like passing a few of the rise to clients: the typical promoting worth of manufactured items rose in October on the quickest tempo for greater than 5 years, in line with the survey.
Figures revealed final week by the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics confirmed manufacturing output shrank by 1 per cent within the third quarter, largely due to a pointy fall in output in July. The newest PMI outcomes recommend the sector had a stronger begin to the fourth quarter.
“With exercise recovering by means of Q3, the PMI comfortably in expansionary territory and the renewed plunge within the worth of sterling more likely to proceed to bolster export demand, we might anticipate to see the manufacturing sector contribute positively to GDP progress in This fall,” stated Martin Beck, senior financial adviser to the EY ITEM Membership.
Inflation has been at traditionally low ranges for a number of years. In September, costs have been 1 per cent larger than a yr earlier, nicely under the Financial institution of England’s 2 per cent goal. Nevertheless, the rising value of imported items is predicted to push inflation up.
“Worth rises from larger import prices have gotten extra vital and will probably be felt in shoppers’ pockets sooner moderately than later,” stated Lee Hopley, chief economist of the EEF, the producers’ organisation.
“Home demand is rising briskly [but] it might be shocking if this power continued, given how sharply producers are elevating costs,” stated Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics.