Steve Case took to Twitter when he heard about AT&T’s proposed $eighty five.4bn takeover of Time Warner, coining a brand new hashtag: #DejaVu.
The previous chief government of AOL is aware of a couple of issues about shopping for Time Warner, having led the $164bn buy of the media firm in 2000 in a deal extensively considered the worst ever, provided that it was swiftly adopted by a $100bn writedown.
There’s little probability of historical past repeating itself, regardless of Mr Case’s wry tweet. AT&T is the most important US telecoms group by market worth with greater than 140m cellular clients within the US and Mexico. Its 2014 acquisition of DirecTV for $49bn made it an prompt pay TV rival to Comcast, the most important cable operator on the earth, and it has invested $140bn in its wi-fi and wireline networks over the previous 5 years. AOL’s worth was inflated by the dotcom growth and its collapse was inevitable: there isn’t any assure AT&T won’t face an identical destiny however such a state of affairs is very unlikely.
But with cellular penetration maturing, the Dallas-based mostly group wants new services to promote to its clients. That is the place Time Warner is available in, with an enviable array of content material spanning superheroes, Recreation of Thrones, the Harry Potter movie collection, NBA basketball rights and CNN’s 24 hour cable information. Randall Stephenson, AT&T’s chairman and chief government, didn’t go into particulars about how he deliberate to turbo-cost Time Warner’s movie and tv programming however he made clear on a media name this weekend that it will assist the corporate promote new services. “Once we mix Time Warner content material with our scale and distribution … we’re going to have one thing actually particular,” he stated.
It’s unclear what that mixture will seem like. Mr Stephenson stated AT&T would be capable of innovate extra quickly by proudly owning its personal content material but the corporate will nonetheless have to strike different licensing offers if the direct to shopper cellular and digital choices it’s planning are to be complete. For instance, an AT&T that owns Time Warner can supply basic cartoons from the Cartoon Community however none from Walt Disney. It will probably supply cable information from CNN however would wish a separate licensing deal to additionally supply Fox Information, which is owned by Rupert Murdoch’s twenty first Century Fox. It could boast superheroes from DC Leisure however will want a further deal whether it is to supply Iron Man, Captain America and The Avengers, that are owned by Disney’s Marvel Studios.
The purpose is that vertical integration can solely achieve this a lot, which can clarify why Apple has by no means acquired a music studio or report label: Apple needs to promote music and video content material to the world in an effort to drive gross sales of its hardware. This implies it has to have a complete number of licensing offers with each main supplier. Proudly owning one won’t be adequate.
The document of corporations which have tried vertical integration is combined. Sony famously acquired Columbia Footage in 1989, aiming to make use of movie and tv programming to drive gross sales of video recorders and, later, DVD gamers. By 1994 the Japanese group had taken a $2.7bn writedown on the deal — virtually as a lot because it paid for the movie studio. Greater than 22 years later it’s uncertain its marriage of content material and hardware ever delivered the returns that it hoped for.
Mr Stephenson and AT&T will need to keep away from an analogous destiny and can look to Comcast as a extra beneficial template. The 2011 buy of NBCUniversal married its broadcast, film manufacturing and theme park enterprise with Comcast’s cable and broadband operations and has been properly acquired by buyers.
For Jeff Bewkes and Time Warner, AT&T’s supply couldn’t have come at a greater time. Wealthy Greenfield, an analyst with BTIG Analysis, stated Mr Bewkes “can see the place your complete legacy media world is headed: secular decline”.
He pointed to the modifications in consumption patterns, with audiences more and more deserting linear tv, the place viewers sit down at an allotted time to observe, in favour of subscription providers reminiscent of Netflix. Curiosity within the expensive bundles of channels bought by cable and satellite tv for pc suppliers has waned and for Mr Bewkes, the writing was on the wall. “Bewkes will find yourself being remembered as the neatest CEO within the sector — understanding when to promote and never overstaying his welcome to maximise worth for shareholders,” Mr Greenfield stated.
Sean Stannard-Stockton, chief funding officer of Ensemble Capital, agreed. “We expect Time Warner’s willingness to promote at this worth means that the administration group has misplaced confidence of their potential to navigate the modifications being wrought by streaming applied sciences,” he stated.
The AT&T-Time Warner deal has already sparked speak of a brand new spherical of consolidation in media. Pure-play content material corporations with nice manufacturers and mental property won’t wrestle within the brief time period. However as time goes on and viewers proceed to desert tv, promoting revenues will proceed to shrink and house owners of channels will be unable to command the identical distribution charges from cable and satellite tv for pc suppliers that they as soon as did.
The dynamics at work within the AT&T-Time Warner deal are additionally at work in efforts to mix Viacom with CBS. The 2 teams are managed by the ninety three-yr-previous billionaire Sumner Redstone and have been as soon as a part of the identical firm however have been separated eleven years in the past to unlock the worth contained in Viacom’s cable channels, corresponding to MTV, Comedy Central and Nickelodeon.
Quick-ahead to 2016 and people channels are struggling. Placing them again along with CBS will give the mixed group extra market heft in negotiating distribution offers with cable and satellite tv for pc corporations and in making an attempt to promote content material direct to shoppers in “excessive” digital packages. Like Time Warner being bought as soon as once more, historical past is repeating itself. Simply ask Steve Case.